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Moving Markets

The Trump Pump: ETF Winners from the 2024 Presidential Election

Here's a recap of which ETFs saw the best intra-day performance following Donald Trump's 2024 presidential victory.

Trump Pump ETFs Winners

The dust has settled on the 2024 presidential election, heralding a decisive victory for Republican candidate Donald Trump following a year of controversy and drama.

As per the Associated Press, by 9:33 AM PST on Wednesday, November 6, 2024, Trump had secured 277 electoral college votes against Democratic candidate Kamala Harris's 224. The Republicans didn't stop there; they also clinched majorities in the Senate (52:42), the House (201:181), and among governors (27:23).

Electoral College Map 2024

In anticipation, certain stocks reacted swiftly to the electoral outcome — Tesla (TSLA) soared, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) surged, and Bitcoin briefly spiked to a record high of $75,000. But beyond individual stocks, the ETF landscape also reflected significant movements.

Pre-election, we highlighted potential ETF winners and losers depending on the outcome. As it turns out, many of our predictions materialized the morning after. Here's a look at which ETFs experienced the most notable positive performances as the markets digested Trump's victory.

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Aerospace & defense ETFs

In response to Trump's campaign promises, the aerospace and defense sectors experienced a noticeable surge post-election. Despite Trump's assurances of reducing U.S. foreign interventions, his policies are far from isolationist, particularly when it comes to defense.

Coupled with his protectionist stance and the push for manufacturing within U.S. borders, it's no surprise that aerospace and defense ETFs were among the major winners today.

Following the election results, major defense ETFs such as the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF

, Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF
PPA
-0.4%
, and SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF
XAR
-0.18%
each saw an increase of over 3% intraday.

These ETFs are heavily invested in the core of the U.S. military-industrial complex, featuring top holdings like Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Huntington Ingalls, General Dynamics, Honeywell, and GE Aerospace.

With the Republicans holding the majority across government branches, these companies are poised to benefit from continued governmental contracts and funding, bolstering their already substantial backlogs and providing a significant tailwind for the sector.

Oil and gas ETFs

The non-renewable energy sector, already subjected to the volatility from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, received a significant boost from Trump's re-election.

Major sector-specific energy ETFs such as the Vanguard Energy ETF

and Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund
XLE
+2.48%
each experienced increases of over 3.5% intraday. Even more pronounced were the gains in upstream-specific ETFs like the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF
XOP
+3.58%
, which surged over 5% due to heightened expectations of deregulation and support for domestic drilling.

Trump's energy policy, epitomized by the slogan "drill, baby, drill," aims for American energy independence and positions the U.S. as a formidable contender against the OPEC cartel. This approach aligns with his broader protectionist stance, favoring domestic over foreign energy sources.

For those looking beyond the typical integrated oil giants and upstream explorers and producers, consider the Pacer American Energy Independence ETF

.

This ETF is somewhat unorthodox in the energy space as it holds U.S. and Canadian Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) and incorporated pipelines, offering exposure to midstream infrastructure critical for the sector's growth under a pro-energy administration.

Manufacturing ETFs

In the wake of Trump's victory, industrial ETFs broadly benefited, but it was manufacturing-specific thematic ETFs that particularly stood out.

While general industrial sector ETFs encompass a variety of sectors including railways, waste management, HR services, and trucking, thematic ones truly align with Trump's economic emphasis on rejuvenating America's manufacturing sector.

For investors targeting the core of American manufacturing—companies like Paccar, Parker Hannifin, Carrier, 3M, Ford, GM, Deere, Illinois Tool Works, and Emerson Electric—the iShares U.S. Manufacturing ETF

is a prime choice. This ETF climbed over 3% today.

Trump's campaign highlighted promises to initiate a U.S. manufacturing renaissance, advocating for policies that would reduce reliance on overseas supply chains and avoid trade wars and extensive overseas commitments.

Notably, another standout ETF in this context is the Tema American Reshoring ETF

, which surged over 6% on election day. This ETF extends beyond traditional manufacturing to include infrastructure elements. It is actively managed with a high-conviction portfolio of approximately 30 holdings.

ETFs odds and ends

What if you wanted to invest in a swath of critical American technologies with one move? The Xtrackers US National Critical Technologies ETF

stands out because it's not limited to a single industry or sector. I covered it before in a separate article, so if you want a deep dive, click here.

This ETF uniquely tracks the Solactive Whitney U.S. Critical Technologies Index, which captures companies across 14 critical technology sectors that also meet a high Geostrategic Risk Rating score. This diverse mix includes big names in oil, semiconductors, American software companies, and healthcare.

Finally, for those who want to align their investment portfolio with their political values, several conservative-minded active ETFs are available.

While fairly niche, they embody the concept that there's literally an ETF for everything—and if one doesn't exist, it likely soon will. Examples include the American Conservative Values ETF

, Point Bridge America First ETF
MAGA
-0.33%
, and God Bless America ETF
YALL
-0.16%
.

Please note this article is for information purposes only and does not in any way constitute investment advice. It is essential that you seek advice from a registered financial professional prior to making any investment decision.

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