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Explore how unexpected inflation data has led to declines in long-term Treasury ETFs, including TLT and VGLT.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield's upward trajectory for the fifth consecutive week signifies more than just numbers. With a gain of 78 basis points to 4.66% from 3.88% since the start of the year, and +4bps over the week, the yield of this vital economic benchmark shows that market sentiment on inflation and future monetary policy expectations has gradually deteriorated.
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Recent data showing a surprise uptick in the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for Q1 to an annualized 3.7%, against a 3.4% forecast, has stirred the pot. This higher-than-anticipated inflation reading has caused traders to recalibrate their expectations, pushing the timeline for a potential rate cut to December, a marked departure from earlier anticipations of three rate cuts this year.
This shift in interest rate outlook and the persistent rise in Treasury yields have had noticeable repercussions on long-term Treasury ETFs. Overall, this asset class suffered a setback, witnessing a 0.94% drop over the week. Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (
Please note this article is for information purposes only and does not in any way constitute investment advice. It is essential that you seek advice from a registered financial professional prior to making any investment decision.
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