Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” Passes Final Vote: ETF Winners & Losers

Winners: Aerospace & Defense ETFs

The Armed Services Committee portion of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act includes $144 billion in new spending, with the potential to balloon to $410 billion if extended permanently.

At the top of the list are $32 billion for shipbuilding and $30 billion for air superiority and missile defense, two categories that directly benefit U.S. defense contractors.

On the shipbuilding front, Huntington Ingalls essentially holds a de facto monopoly. It’s the only company in the U.S. building nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and amphibious assault ships, making it a major beneficiary of expanded naval funding.

Meanwhile, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, RTX, and Boeing dominate the air and missile defense space. Each contributes a key platform:

• Northrop Grumman is behind the B-21 Raider, the U.S. Air Force’s next-generation stealth bomber.
• Lockheed Martin makes the F-35, the most widely deployed modern fighter jet.
• RTX leads in missile defense with systems like Patriot and NASAMS.
• Boeing builds the F-15EX and the AH-64 Apache attack helicopter.

The natural ETF to benefit from this spending surge is the NYSE-listed Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF

. All of the major contractors above are prominently represented in its portfolio.

 PPA is also less top-heavy than its better-known peer, the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF

, offering broader exposure across the supply chain while still overweighting prime contractors expected to see the most direct funding tailwinds.

Losers: Clean Energy ETFs

There’s no such luck for clean energy industries like solar and wind in this bill. Former President Trump has long made his preferences clear: he’s consistently favored coal and fossil fuels over renewables, and this legislation reflects that stance.

A significant chunk of the bill’s offsets come from rolling back clean energy incentives. The two largest items are telling: $191 billion from repealing EV tax credits, and $249 billion from phasing out energy investment, production, and manufacturing credits.

That second one is especially impactful. It refers to the suite of subsidies introduced under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which supported renewable infrastructure, domestic clean energy manufacturing, and project development through generous tax incentives. Wiping these out removes the financial scaffolding many companies were relying on.

This puts clean energy ETFs directly in the crosshairs. Many of the firms in this space, especially smaller players in wind, solar, and battery tech struggle to achieve consistent profitability. The sector remains highly capital-intensive and subsidy-dependent, making it especially vulnerable to policy risk.

The Invesco Solar ETF

and First Trust Global Wind Energy ETF

FAN

are two of the most prominent clean energy ETFs to watch. Both have managed to stay in the green year-to-date, but if this legislation becomes law and investor sentiment turns, I expect mounting pressure. These are areas where political momentum matters, and right now, that isn’t going their way.

Please note that this article reflects the author’s personal views and does not represent the opinions of the publication or its affiliates. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. It is essential to seek guidance from a registered financial professional before making any investment decisions.