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There's an ETF for That? Black Friday & Cyber Monday Retail

Here's a look at some unique ETFs poised to benefit from higher consumer retail spending.

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It's that time of year again! Not Christmas, but everyone's favorite manufactured consumer event—Black Friday and its online counterpart, Cyber Monday.

What's the outlook this year? According to the National Retail Federation, an estimated 183.4 million shoppers are expected to participate. Of these, 131.7 million plan to shop in person on Black Friday, with the rest making purchases online during Cyber Monday.

Historically, trends show more total shoppers on Black Friday but higher spending on Cyber Monday. The rise of e-commerce, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, has only strengthened Cyber Monday's prominence in recent years.

As usual, there are specialized retail ETFs designed to capitalize on consumer spending, not just during this shopping frenzy but year-round. These ETFs may see a bump if sales exceed expectations. Here's a quick roundtable look at the options, courtesy of the ETF Central screener.

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VanEck Retail ETF
RTH

RTH

has $235 million in assets under management and a 0.35% expense ratio. It tracks the MVIS US Listed Retail 25 Index, which targets the largest and most liquid retail companies.

RTH

has been a very strong performer, delivering an annualized return of 14.09% over the last 10 years. It holds a five-star rating in Morningstar's consumer cyclical category, meaning it has historically outperformed most peers on a risk-adjusted basis.

The current market-cap weighted portfolio is centered on mega-cap names like Amazon, Walmart, Costco, Home Depot, and Lowe's. This blend of discretionary and staples retailers provides broad exposure to both essential and non-essential consumer spending trends.

SPDR S&P Retail ETF
XRT

While RTH's market-cap-weighted methodology means mega-caps dominate its portfolio, an alternative with the same 0.35% expense ratio is the SPDR S&P Retail ETF

, which has $628 million in assets under management.

XRT

tracks the S&P Retail Select Industry Index and uses an equal-weighting approach, giving significantly more allocation to mid- and small-cap retail companies. This makes it a more diversified option across the sector, rather than being concentrated in a few dominant names.

Here's a fun fact you might not know: XRT has been the subject of conspiracies on Reddit's r/SuperStonk community. The meme stock bagholders here theorize that the ETF is being used to "naked short" one of its holdings, GameStop, through "fail-to-deliver" (FTD) activity.

Direxion Daily Retail Bull 3x Shares ETF
RETL

If you're looking to trade retail stocks with a short-term bullish view, rather than holding over the long term, RETL

might be a better fit than XRT or RTH.

RETL

aims to deliver three times the daily returns of the S&P Retail Select Industry Index, the same benchmark used by XRT. It achieves this leverage through swaps, which contribute to its higher expense ratio of 0.97%.

Like most leveraged ETFs, RETL

isn't ideal for long-term holding due to the unpredictable effects of daily compounding. This is especially true given its 3x leverage and narrow diversification, making it better suited for tactical traders looking to capitalize on short-term retail market movements.

Amplify Online Retail ETF
IBUY

If your focus is more on Cyber Monday than Black Friday, IBUY is the thematic ETF to watch. With $187 million in AUM, it tracks the EQM Online Retail Index at an expense ratio of 0.65%.

Here's how it works: the globally diversified benchmark selects companies generating at least 70% of their revenue from online retail, travel, marketplaces, or omnichannel operations. Omnichannel refers to businesses that integrate both online and physical retail experiences to serve customers seamlessly across platforms.

IBUY

offers an interesting basket of stocks. Companies like Chewy (online pet supplies) represent the online retail segment, Expedia (travel bookings) covers the travel sector, and Upwork (freelance marketplace) falls into the marketplace category. Lyft (ride-hailing) and Affirm (buy-now-pay-later financing) represent businesses that tie into the broader digital ecosystem supporting online commerce.

ProShares Decline of the Retail Store ETF
EMTY

ProShares offers a counterpart to IBUY in the form of the ProShares Online Retail ETF

, but true to the firm's history of leveraged and inverse funds, they also provide an even more unique option: EMTY
EMTY
.

EMTY's ticker is a play on "empty" stores. The ETF is net bearish on physical retail, effectively positioning itself as a direct bet against Black Friday shopping.

EMTY

provides daily unleveraged short exposure to the Solactive-ProShares Bricks and Mortar Retail Store Index. Like most inverse ETFs, EMTY achieves this exposure through index swaps with counterparties, typically major banks.

Surprisingly, EMTY

is reasonably priced for its niche, with a 0.65% expense ratio—on par with other inverse ETFs. Its non-leveraged inverse exposure at -1x makes it more palatable as a longer-term hedge or a speculative play on the continued decline of brick-and-mortar retail.

Please note this article is for information purposes only and does not in any way constitute investment advice. It is essential that you seek advice from a registered financial professional prior to making any investment decision.

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