Silver’s Breakout, Gold’s Supremacy & Why Commodities Are Back

The Market’s Smoke and Mirrors

Before plunging into precious metals, momentum analysis guru Michael Oliver gave host Jesse Day a cold splash of technical reality on the broad markets. While the S&P, NASDAQ, and Dow have shown signs of life following tariff-driven chaos, Oliver isn’t buying the recovery. Using his Momentum Structural Analysis (MSA), which looks beyond price into the deeper mechanics of quarterly and annual momentum, he sees a market that already suffered a fatal wound in early 2024.

Oliver likens price action to a façade: it might look intact, but structurally, it's like a bombed bridge—doomed. Momentum, not headlines or surface-level trends, tells him the stock market is now in a long-term downtrend. He’s already seen key momentum floors break and says the recent bounce to 4,835 on the S&P was merely a countertrend rally—not a real recovery.

Why Silver Might Be the Trade of the Decade

The episode then zeroes in on silver. Oliver’s analysis points to a huge relative undervaluation: silver currently trades at just 1.01% of the gold price, while historical norms sit closer to 2%. If silver merely reverts to mean, that’s essentially a doubling in price relative to gold.

But there’s more. Silver’s long-term momentum, measured via a 40-week oscillator, is brushing up against a breakout zone. If silver hits the $34.90–$36 range, it will confirm a triple-top breakout—a technical pattern Oliver insists silver almost never fails to explode out of.

His price target? $60–$70 in the next 6–12 months. Forget the oft-cited $50 highs from 1980 and 2011. He calls those irrelevant, brief spikes. Today’s environment is fundamentally and technically stronger.

Gold: The Real Long-Term Winner

While silver might be the more explosive short-term play, gold continues its quiet dominance. Oliver pointed out that since May 2023, gold is up 37%, trouncing the S&P’s 13%. Over two years, it’s a 62% gain for gold versus 42% for the S&P. And zoom out even further? Since 2000, gold has returned 11x compared to the S&P’s 4x.

Yet gold doesn’t get the media love—it’s treated as boring. But Oliver thinks the facts speak for themselves. And with the miners just starting to wake up (more on that below), gold’s real rally may be just getting started.

Miners: The Sleeping Giants

Oliver emphasized that the real fireworks might come from precious metal miners. He showed a spread chart comparing gold miners to the price of gold itself, which has been in a relative downtrend since 2020. That spread is now pushing against a major resistance level. A breakout here would mean miners start massively outperforming gold—which they historically do in the later stages of a bull market.

He notes GDX (a gold miner ETF) has already risen from $31.50 to near $50 in just over a year, but argues that’s just the beginning. Once institutions start rotating out of sinking equity markets, miners—being actual stocks with earnings—could be a natural landing spot for capital.

Silver Is Still Money

On a philosophical note, Oliver stressed that silver remains a monetary metal, despite being treated like an industrial commodity during risk-off events. In April, while gold dipped just 1%, silver collapsed—but quickly bounced back. This kneejerk correlation to base commodities is misguided, he says. Historically, silver trends with gold, not copper or the broader Bloomberg Commodity Index.

The supply deficit—now in its fifth consecutive year—is another silent tailwind. While Oliver doesn’t rely on fundamentals, he acknowledged that surging industrial demand (think solar panels) is a potential “headline event” that could amplify silver’s coming breakout.

Uranium: Stable After the Storm

Uranium bulls, breathe easy. After warning of a correction last August (right as URA ETF dropped hard), Oliver now believes the sector is stable. His momentum metrics show the long-term bull trend remains intact. While uranium may not shoot higher tomorrow, the recent correction was the dip—and not the end of the trend.

As for URA, Oliver says it got ahead of itself, outpacing the actual uranium price, which caused the recent snapback. But now, URA is in line with the underlying commodity again. Long story short: uranium is back in buy territory.

Energy and Oil: Not Dead Yet

Oil and gas stocks have been left in the gutter, with crude dipping below $60. But Oliver doesn’t think this is a genuine breakdown. Instead, he sees it as a bear trap. Once crude closes a week above $65 and pushes into the upper $60s, it could trigger a serious rally.

Momentum structures on crude point to a breakout in the $69–$72 range. If that happens, oil could rejoin the broader commodity uptrend.

Copper and the Commodity Complex

Copper, despite its volatility, is firmly in a bull trend according to Oliver. It may not lead every commodity rally, but it reflects a broader narrative: commodities are entering a renaissance. Oliver urges investors to track the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) itself—it’s the canary in the coal mine for money flow out of overvalued financial assets into tangible goods.

BCOM remains 50% below its 2008 highs and is just now basing around 102. A monthly close above 106.5 would confirm a new bull leg, according to Oliver’s long-term momentum models.

The Bigger Picture: Why Momentum Matters

Oliver closed with a reminder: price charts lie. They’re measured in dollars, a unit that loses value constantly. Momentum, on the other hand, accounts for time and movement relative to averages—offering a clearer signal amid the noise.

It’s this methodology that allowed him to catch the 1987 crash, the 2020 commodity boom, and the current silver setup. Investors hooked on headlines and price highs might miss the next big move—but momentum watchers won’t.

Bottom Line

Silver’s primed for a historic breakout. Gold is already outperforming stocks. And the broader commodity complex is quietly stealing capital from overvalued equity markets. According to Michael Oliver, it’s time to get real—and get long commodities.

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This article is for informational purposes only and does not in any way constitute investment advice. The author may express their own opinions, which may not represent the opinions of ETF Central or its affiliated partners. It is essential that you seek advice from a registered financial professional prior to making any investment decisions.