Semiconductor ETFs Mixed After Nvidia Q3 2023 Earnings Beat

SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD)

Nvidia's run-up year to date has led to concerns about possible overvaluation and the risk of a mean version in the company's share price. For SOXX investors, this risk is notable given that Nvidia represents around 8% of the ETF at present. The risk is even greater for the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), which currently allocates roughly 20% to Nvidia.

This is a natural consequence of the market-cap weighted indices used by both ETFs, the NYSE Semiconductor Index and the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index, both of which allocate proportionately more to larger companies. While this has been beneficial thanks to their outperformance, it does lead to more concentration risk.

A viable alternative here is XSD, which tracks the S&P Semiconductor Select Industry Index. Unlike SOXX and SMH, XSD's index is equal-weighted. This ensures a far more even distribution between large, mid, and small-cap semiconductor stocks, allowing investors to bet on the overall industry instead of just the biggest players. In terms of fees, XSD charges the same 0.35% expense ratio as SOXX and SMH.

Invesco Semiconductors ETF (PSI)

The indexes used by both SMH and SOXX are very passive in nature – that is, they do not screen for fundamentals beyond market cap size, geography, and liquidity. Their role is to provide market-cap-weighted exposure to the domestic semiconductor industry, with an emphasis on the largest and most liquid companies. Beyond this, neither ETF makes attempts to exclude holdings further.

In contrast, PSI tracks the Dynamic Semiconductor Intellidex Index. This ETF targets a concentrated portfolio of 30 U.S.-listed semiconductor stocks that are selected based on how they score in terms of multiple fundamental criteria. This includes their price momentum, earnings momentum, quality, management action, and valuations, with the resulting holdings weighted accordingly.

The result is a portfolio far less concentrated in large-cap growth stocks. As of November 22nd, PSI has good exposure to semiconductor companies falling into the mid-cap and small-cap blend segments. This portfolio is rebalanced and reconstituted on a quarterly basis to ensure that holdings still adhere to its screeners. Investors can expect a 0.57% expense ratio.

Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares ETF (SOXL)

Short-term traders can speculate on the overall industry via leveraged ETFs like SOXL, which provide magnified exposure without needing to trade options or use cash margin. This ETF attempts to deliver a daily result three times (3x) that of the NYSE Semiconductor Index, the same index tracked by SOXX. If the index rises by 1%, SOXX will deliver 3%, but vice-versa if the index falls.

The ETF achieves this leverage through the use of swaps with a counterparty. It's important to note that the 3x leveraged exposure is a daily reset target, meaning that over longer holding periods, SOXL will not deliver 3x what its index returns. This discrepancy is further exacerbated during periods of high market volatility, where the daily compounding can cause an unpredictable sequence of returns.

Adding to SOXL's unsuitability for a long-term buy and hold strategy is a fairly high 0.94% expense ratio, which can eat into returns. For the semiconductor bears out there wishing to bet against the industry like Burry did, SOXL has an opposite counterpart, the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull Bear 3X Shares ETF (SOXS). In contrast to SOXL, SOXS targets a daily 3x inverse return corresponding to the same index.

Please note this article is for information purposes only and does not in any way constitute investment advice. It is essential that you seek advice from a registered financial professional prior to making any investment decision.