MoneyShow Chart of the Day 9/16/26: Oil? Surging. Oil Stocks? Not So Much.

WTI (Red), Brent (Black), XOP (Blue), XLE (Green)
1-Month % Change

Source: TradingView

Now, I don’t want to beat up on the XLE and XOP TOO much here. The benchmark ETFs for diversified energy companies and explorers and producers, respectively, are both having phenomenal years. XLE is up 44% and XOP is up 54%. But even those gains lag behind the year-to-date price moves in crude (84% for WTI, 79% for Brent).

Some of that could stem from the lousy performance of natural gas. US gas futures are down more than 18% YTD, something that can weigh on integrated oil and gas companies.

Some of the divergence may come from the fact energy stocks are still STOCKS. If the overall market struggles, as we’ve seen with the S&P 500 Index lately, it can weigh on equities broadly.

Some of it may be driven by the fact traders expect oil prices to retreat in the out-months if Middle East tensions subside. Oil futures contracts for delivery in mid-to-late 2027 are priced in the $70s, for instance.

So, what’s the opportunity? If you’re an energy bull who thinks oil the commodity will remain “higher for longer,” you can take advantage of this situation by adding more energy stock exposure – both on an absolute basis and relative to the market. Food for thought amid this latest, greatest divergence.

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Please note: This is syndicated content and reflects the author’s personal views. It does not represent the opinions of this publication or its affiliates. The article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult a registered financial professional before making any investment decisions.