MoneyShow Chart of the Day 2/11/2026: Why THIS Indicator Could be a Key Tech Tell

Single B High Yield Index Spread

Source: FRED

You can see that it costs a Single-B borrower about 310 basis points – or 3.1 percentage points – extra to access funding than Uncle Sam. That’s up from around 275 bps in September (though well below the “Liberation Day” peak in early 2025.)

What’s going on?

As a Reuters story noted yesterday, “Concerns that artificial intelligence could disrupt large parts of the software industry have started to spill ​into credit markets, Morgan Stanley warned, as software accounts for ‌about 16%, or $235 billion, of the $1.5 trillion US loan market.”

The piece goes on to note half the loans made to software companies feature B- or lower ratings. Another 26% are CCC-rated – near the bottom of the credit quality scale. Plus, many software loans mature in four years or less. If borrowers need to refinance to extend their payback periods – at a time when credit markets are increasingly antsy – it could drive borrowing costs and defaults higher.

Right now, the spread widening is modest. But I’m keeping a close eye on the high yield markets to see if it gets worse. If it does, it’ll be another obstacle for AI stocks and big tech names…or even the market as a whole if spreads really start blowing out.

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