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Commodities Exposure Could Help Navigate Potential Prolonged Stagflation
In a world of stagflation risks, passive portfolios may stall—commodities can help drive returns forward.
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As markets continue to experience heightened volatility and concerns around a potential recession grow, investors are increasingly hearing discussions about the risk of prolonged stagflation. While inflation refers to the gradual erosion of purchasing power through rising prices for goods and services, stagflation is a more challenging environment marked by the combination of high inflation, stagnant economic growth, and elevated unemployment.
In such periods, investor portfolios need to work harder. The chart below highlights the performance of a traditional 60/40 portfolio alongside the three-year annualized inflation rate over time. Simply adopting a “set-it-and-forget-it” approach may leave meaningful returns on the table—returns that could potentially be captured through active management strategies, particularly those that incorporate commodities to enhance and diversify traditional portfolios.
Adding commodities to a portfolio can offer meaningful diversification benefits, reducing reliance on equities and fixed income alone—as found in the traditional 60/40 portfolio. Historically, commodities have served as an effective hedge against inflation and have the potential to enhance returns during periods of market stress.
The 60/40 portfolio is a common benchmark for moderate-risk investors, typically allocating 60% to equities for capital appreciation and 40% to fixed income for risk mitigation and income generation. The charts referenced define the 60/40 portfolio as 60% S&P 500 Index and 40% Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, rebalanced quarterly.
This commentary is provided by Harbor Capital Advisors. For investors seeking targeted exposure in commodities, consider exploring the Harbor Commodity All-Weather Strategy ETF, HGER, which seeks to provide investment results that closely correspond, before fees and expenses, to the performance of the Quantix Commodity Index.
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Important Information
Risks
Investing involves risk, and principal loss is possible. Unlike mutual funds, ETFs may trade at a premium or discount to their net asset value. The ETF is new and has limited operating history to judge.
There is no guarantee that the investment objective of the Fund will be achieved. Stock markets are volatile, and equity values can decline significantly in response to adverse issuer, political, regulatory, market, and economic conditions. A non-diversified Fund may invest a greater percentage of its assets in securities of a single issuer and/or invest in a relatively small number of issuers; it is more susceptible to risks associated with a single economic, political, or regulatory occurrence than a more diversified portfolio.
Commodity Risk: The Fund has exposure to commodities through its and/or the Subsidiary’s investments in commodity-linked derivative instruments. Authorized Participant Concentration/Trading Risk: Only authorized participants (“APs”) may engage in creation or redemption transactions directly with the Fund. Commodity-Linked Derivatives Risk: The Fund’s investments in commodity-linked derivative instruments (either directly or through the Subsidiary) and the tracking of an Index comprised of commodity futures may subject the Fund to significantly greater volatility than investments in traditional securities.
Benchmarks
The Quantix Commodity Total Return (Commodity) Index is calculated on a total return basis, which combines the returns of the futures contracts with the returns on cash collateral invested in 13‑week U.S. Treasury Bills. This unmanaged index does not
reflect fees and expenses and is not available for direct investment. The Quantix Commodity Index was developed by Quantix Commodities LP and is owned by Quantix Commodities Indices LLC. The Bloomberg U.S Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index of investment-grade fixed-rate debt issues with maturities of at least one year. The S&P 500 Index is generally representative of the U.S. market for large capitalization equities. These indices are unmanaged and do not reflect fees and expenses and are not available for direct investment.
Disclosures
The views expressed herein may not be reflective of current opinions, are subject to change without prior notice, and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to purchase a particular security.
Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of a fund before investing. To obtain a summary prospectus or prospectus for this and other information, visit harborcapital.com or call 800-422-1050. Read it carefully before investing.
Quantix Commodities LP (“Quantix”) is a third-party subadvisor to the Harbor Commodity All-Weather Strategy ETF.
Foreside Fund Services, LLC is the Distributor of the Harbor ETFs.
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